December 8, 2005
Here's an example. You hold A-10 in fifth position. On the flop only three other Tigergaming players are active: the big blind, and seats eight and nine. The flop is A-9-7. The big blind bets. With no raise before the flop, there's no way to determine what he might be holding. You may be out kicked if he holds A-K, A-Q or A-J.
Using this guideline -- which I think was first postulated by David Sklansky, though I'm not certain -- a winning $20-$40 player needs a $12,000 bankroll to sustain himself through the predictable troughs he is bound to encounter at the table. That figure works for me, but it won't work for everyone. Here's why. Some winning players are a lot better than others. And some games are better too.
In these Tigergaming games, where you typically have a relatively large number of opponents seeing the flop and even continuing beyond it with all sorts of hands I can't imagine ever playing, a bluff is unlikely to work for two reasons. As a general rule, the more opponents you are confronting, the greater the chance that at least one of them has a hand. And he or she will call when you come out betting. In addition, low limit games are populated with players who sleep very well, thank you, knowing that no one, but no one, is stealing from them.
- No individual bets, mind you, but bets designed to capitalize on the intrastate rivalry that seems to affect all things involving both halves of this very bifurcated state of ours. So we have teams of bettors, described either as SoCals or NoCals. But this didn't seem fair to our other guests, so a "Rest-of-the-World" team -- instantly dubbed the UnCals -- was formed too. The cost of the wager is ten bucks per participant per event. Losers pay winners and the winners divvy up the loot. That makes it fair for smaller teams.
- We're also going to assume your Tigergaming opponent knows with absolute certainty that you were on a flush draw. Although he cannot beat a flush, his hand is strong enough to beat any busted flush. Here's where game theory comes into play. Suppose you bet every flush draw - whether you made it or not. What do you think would happen? If your opponent was very cautious, he'd throw his hand away most of the time and you'd win the pot whenever he did.
- "How many ways can you choose two items (in this case, each possible pair of aces) from a universe comprised of four aces?" The mathematical process involves multiplying components of the universe in descending, but sequential order. How many components? Select as many as there are choices. That's step one. Then multiply each component of your choices, in ascending order. That's step two.
- When you're in the long run, your results as a Tigergaming poker player are entirely a product of your own skill and discipline. I decided to use a computer to simulate play and help me determine just how long it takes to get into the long run. Computers offer a way of playing thousands of hands in a very short time. I set up some scenarios. In the first, I used a Rock player program. In the second, a Fish, and in the third I used a Solid player.
The chances that the bluff will succeed on its own merits coupled with the chances of the hand improving are what make the semibluff such a strong tactical weapon. Bluffing with more cards to come is a better idea when you have a couple of ways to win. When you bluff with a hopeless hand and there are more cards to come, you'll usually cost yourself money in the long run.
